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About

João Claro is associate professor of Industrial Engineering and Management at Faculdade de Engenharia of the Universidade do Porto (FEUP), and holds appointments with INESC TEC, where he is Member of the Board of Directors, with responsibilities in the areas of Knowledge Valorization and Technology Transfer, and a researher in the Centre for Innovation, Technology, and Entrepreneurship, and with Porto Business School (PBS), where he heads the Entrepreneurship and Innovation academic area. He is the National Director of the Carnegie Mellon Portugal Program, an international partnership in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) between Portuguese universities, research labs and companies, and Carnegie Mellon University (CMU). The partnership is funded by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia. João Claro was a visiting scholar with the Engineering Systems Division at MIT. In the past decade, he has taught and mentored close to 100 technology commercialization teams from Portuguese universities, research labs and companies, in multiple initiatives with COTEC Portugal, FEUP, INESC TEC, PBS, and CMU. João Claro holds a Ph.D. in Electrical and Computer Engineering from FEUP (2008), an MSc in Quantitative Methods in Management from PBS (2002), and an undergraduate degree in Electrical and Computer Engineering from FEUP (1993). Prior to returning to the University, he was a software engineer and project manager at Edinfor (1994-1998).

Interest
Topics
Details

Details

007
Publications

2017

Probabilistic cost prediction for submarine power cable projects

Authors
Schell, KR; Claro, J; Guikema, SD;

Publication
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL POWER & ENERGY SYSTEMS

Abstract
It is estimated that Europe alone will need to add over 250,000 km of transmission capacity by 2050, if it is to meet renewable energy production goals while maintaining security of supply. Estimating the cost of new transmission infrastructure is difficult, but it is crucial to predict these costs as accurately as possible, given their importance to the energy transition. Transmission capacity expansion plans are often founded on optimistic projections of expansion costs. We present probabilistic predictive models of the cost of submarine power cables, which can be used by policymakers, industry, and academia to better approximate the true cost of transmission expansion plans. The models are both generalizable and well specified for a variety of submarine applications, across a variety of regions. The best performing statistical learning model has slightly more predictive power than a simpler, linear econometric model. The specific decision context will determine whether the extra data gathering effort for the statistical learning model is worth the additional precision. A case study illustrates that incorporating the uncertainty associated with the cost prediction to calculate risk metrics - value-at-risk and conditional-value-at-risk provides useful information to the decision-maker about cost variability and extremes.

2017

Is Portugal's forest transition going up in smoke?

Authors
Oliveira, TM; Guiomar, N; Oliveira Baptista, FO; Pereira, JMC; Claro, J;

Publication
LAND USE POLICY

Abstract
The turnarounds from decrease to expansion in forest areas that took place during the last century have been examined through the lens of forest transition theory (FTT). Among temperate and Mediterranean European countries that have seen an expansion of forest cover, Portugal stands out as the only case in which this trend has recently been reverted. In this study, we explicitly map and document the forest transition (FT) in the country over the period 1907-2006, and investigate when and where forest transition happened de facto, and which were the land use transition pathways that resulted from the shrublands, agriculture, and forest interplay dynamics. After thematic and geometric harmonization of land cover maps from 1907, 1955, 1970, 1990, and 2006, a cluster analysis established four typologies, and a transition matrix was constructed to assess land cover dynamics. We found that up to 1955, FT occurred simultaneously with agricultural expansion, as shrubland areas diminished. Afterwards, with the retraction of agricultural area and the consequential decoupling of forest management from local actors, FT gained momentum and expanded up to the 1990s. While during the first half of the 20th century, forest expansion followed the "Scarcity" and "State Policy" pathways fostered by local socio-ecological feedback loops, throughout the second half of the century forest transition was driven by exogenous socio-economic forces, following "Economic Development" and "Globalization" pathways. We show how, despite these forces, FT can be derailed by endogenous factors such as wildfires, which limited and in some areas even reverted the afforestation process, initiating a deforestation phase. Since the necessary conditions for FT (technology shift, urbanization, agriculture retraction and public afforestation programs) were available in mainland Portugal, we advance the hypothesis that critical wildfire risk governance deficits may have been responsible for arresting FT. Considering the critical role of forests and other wooded areas in supporting climate change mitigation and sustainable development, our work provides useful evidence and insights for public decision makers on previously unaddressed dimensions of FTT.

2017

Dynamic evolution of European airport systems in the context of Low-Cost Carriers growth

Authors
Jimenez, E; Claro, J; de Sousa, JP; de Neufville, R;

Publication
JOURNAL OF AIR TRANSPORT MANAGEMENT

Abstract
Airport systems adapted to the influx of Low-Cost Carriers (LCC) as the segment grew in prominence in the European market during the last decades. The generalised perspective that LCCs are attached to remote secondary airports is being increasingly challenged by recent moves of the largest European LCC. The reality is that the impact of LCCs has spread to most commercial airports in Europe, primary and secondary alike. Yet, despite valuable insights on the evolution of airline networks, the existing literature lacks a clear understanding of why this has occurred. This paper explains the dynamics in the evolution of airports systems that resulted in significant growth for the low-cost segment in Europe. A multiple case study involving 42 European airports was used to identify the mechanisms that triggered the traffic patterns leading to the ascendency of LCCs in their respective airport systems. Understanding these mechanisms may prove valuable for supporting airport strategic planning.

2016

The role of fire-suppression force in limiting the spread of extremely large forest fires in Portugal

Authors
Fernandes, PM; Pacheco, AP; Almeida, R; Claro, J;

Publication
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH

Abstract
Large forest fires are notorious for their environmental and socio-economic impacts and are assigned a disproportionately high percentage of the fire management budget. This study addresses extremely large fires (ELF, C2500 ha) in Portugal (2003-2013). We analysed the effect of fire-suppression force variation on ELF duration, size and growth rate, versus the effect of the concomitant fire environment (namely fuel and weather) conditions. ELF occurred in highly flammable landscapes and typically were impelled by extreme fire weather conditions. Allocation of suppression resources (normalized per unit of burned area or perimeter length) was disparate among fires, suggesting inadequate incident management. Fire-suppression effort did not affect time to containment modelled by survival analysis. Regression tree analysis indicated ELF spread to be negatively affected by higher fire-suppression resourcing, less severe fire weather, lower time to containment and higher presence of <9-year-old fuels, by decreasing order of importance; regional variability was relevant. Fire environment-to-fire suppression ratios of influence were 3: 1 for fire size and 1: 1 for fire growth rate, respectively, explaining 76 and 60 % of the existing variability. Results highlight the opportunistic nature of large-fire containment. To minimize the area burned by ELF, management and operational improvements leading to faster containment are recommended, rather than higher fire-suppression resourcing; more effective identification and exploration of containment opportunities are preferable to the accumulation of suppression resources.

2015

Cohesive fire management within an uncertain environment: A review of risk handling and decision support systems

Authors
Pacheco, AP; Claro, J; Fernandes, PM; de Neufville, R; Oliveira, TM; Borges, JG; Rodrigues, JC;

Publication
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

Abstract
Wildfire management has been struggling in recent years with escalating devastation, expenditures, and complexity. Given the copious factors involved and the complexity of their interactions, uncertainty in the outcomes is a prominent feature of wildfire management strategies, at both policy and operational levels. Improvements in risk handling and in risk-based decision support tools have therefore a key role in addressing these challenges. In this paper, we review key systems created to support wildfire management decision-making at different levels and scales, and describe their evolution from an initial focus on landscape-level fire growth simulation and burn probability assessment, to the incorporation of exposure and economic loss potential (allowing the translation of ignition likelihood, fire environment terrain, fuels, and weather and suppression efficacy into potential fire effects), the integration with forest management and planning, and more recently, to developments in the assessment of values at risk, including real-time assessment. This evolution is linked to a progressive widening of the scope of usage of these systems, from an initial more limited application to risk assessment, to the subsequent inclusion of functionality enabling their Utilization in the context of risk management, and more recently, to their explicit casting in the broader societal context of risks and decisions, from a risk governance perspective. This joint evolution can be seen as the result of a simultaneous pull from methodological progresses in risk handling, and push from technological progress in wildfire management decision support tool, as well as more broadly in computational power. We identify the key benefits and challenges in the development and adoption of these systems, as well as future plausible research trends.

Supervised
thesis

2016

Managerial capabilities in high-tech high-growth new ventures

Author
Alípio Torre

Institution
UP-FEUP

2016

Service design e a gestão da implementação de novos serviços: o caso do rastreio da retinopatia diabética

Author
Vera Liliana Carvalho Faria

Institution
UP-FEUP

2016

Technology Roadmapping

Author
Vasco Teles

Institution
UP-FEUP

2016

Computational Models for Renewable Energy Target Achievement & Policy Analysis

Author
Kristen Rene Schell

Institution
UP-FEUP

2016

Drag&Shop: Análise e concepção de produto no setor e-Business.

Author
João Barbosa

Institution
UP-FEUP